A mere two months prior when the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction was entirely far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second to restore the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough proposition to answer. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the margins are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and once more versus the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had more efforts and more shots on target. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, no one envisioned the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while looking like an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
